Tuesday, October 1, 2013

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With the worst roster in the NFL preparing to walk into the home of the best offense we've seen in perhaps the better part of a decade next week, it brings to light a sporadic and bizarre history of absurd spreads in NFL games.

 

Jacksonville was outmatched again this past Sunday, losing to Indianapolis at home by a score of 37-3. The Jags have perhaps the worst quarterback to have ever started over the course of three plus NFL seasons to go along with several players on defense whom are arguably fringe NFL practice squad talents.

 

Their trip to Denver in week six is just yet another illustration of the very realistic possibility that the Broncos could go undefeated this year. Their additions of Julius Thomas and Wes Welker make them video game like in nature. Combine those athletes with Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas and it’s absolutely lethal.

 

Making it even more absurd is the brain power of Peyton Manning. Manning and company just hung 52 on Philadelphia without even playing in the fourth quarter. I'd like to think a similar output could take place against the Jags, and it is one of the many reasons that the advanced line at many Vegas sports books is something around 25-27 points.

 

The NFL can say all it wants about it being a league of parity. Playoff football certainly attests to such a theory. When the playoffs roll around, dogs come out to play with a real chip on their shoulders. The physicality and increased emotion make for difficult match ups regardless of how a team is perceived.

 

But the regular season is quite different. When you look at teams like Detroit not too long ago and other organizations, you realize that the NFL has wealthy businessmen often running a business which they really do not understand. The ability for an organization to be inept for long stretches is not only real but likely, and the end result is the scrimmage like atmosphere that will likely be in play at Mile High next weekend.

 

Back in 2007, right round the time that Tom Brady and Randy Moss were annihilating opposing competition, Vegas took a stand and began to throw out large numbers for certain games. The Pats entered three different games as favorites of 20 or more, including a ridiculous line of 24 against Philly that resulted in a narrow three point win.

 

The Niners of the late 80's and early 90's also saw some huge numbers come their way, including a 23.5 line in a 1987 game with Atlanta and a 24 point line during a home spot with Cincinnati in 1993.

 

The Steelers of the 70's were also afforded a massive number or two back in the 70's, and the Rams during the tail end of the "Fastest Show on Turf," era held a 19.5 point spread in a home game with a young Carolina group back in 2001.

 

On the flip side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the 70's were on the wrong side of a vast numerical disparity twice, once at home against New England in 1976 and the other time during a road bout with Dallas the following year.

 

The point of the matter is simple; it is not by coincidence that a number like this pops up. Sure, a spread can take on an elevated form should perception and recent performance really be that grave. But typically the number is a real sign of serious inefficiencies in the way the sport is supposed to be set up at the professional level.

 

Eventually Denver will come back to earth as a franchise once Peyton is gone. Jacksonville should eventually begin a climb back toward mediocrity once Blaine Gabbert is shuffled off to the Canadian Football League or some other organization.

 

But, for now, this game is really taking place. Most "sharps" prefer to never touch a favorite in the double digit range, let alone one that is giving away a projected 27 points. Here, however, I highly doubt those points will be sufficient.

 



  

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