Saturday, April 4, 2015

Final Four Betting Preview: Major upset brewing in Indianapolis

Reposted By Danny B

by Gino Bottero 16h ago

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s an overview of some items that will be of note to bettors when putting money down on the Final Four.

1 Duke Blue Devils vs. 7 Michigan State Spartans

Spread: Duke -5.5
Total: 138
Line movement:

Team	Opening Line	Current Line	Action
Michigan State	+4.5	+5.5	32%
Duke	-4.5	-5.5	68%

Team	Opening Total	Current Total	Action
Michigan State	140.5 ov	138 ov	26%
Duke	140.5 un	138 un	74%

Analysis: Tom Izzo is a wizard in the month of March. His teams are more likely to make the Final Four than get knocked off in the first weekend.
But this is April, and outside of Michigan State's 2000 title run as a No. 1 seed, Izzo is 1-5 in the tournament's final weekend. He's also 1-8 against Mike Krzyzewski.
Michigan State's bigs got into foul trouble against Louisville. The combination of Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow is a different animal entirely. The Spartans' lack of frontcourt depth will finally catch up with them.
As for the total, 138 feels awfully high. Duke had trouble with the sight lines playing in a football stadium in Houston, and that same issue will be present on Saturday.
With the exception of an overtime game against Louisville, Michigan State hasn't played to a total this high in the tournament, and each of Duke's four tournament games have stayed under the number.
Prediction: Duke 67, Michigan State 61
The Play: Under 138
The Trend: The under is 6-0 in the Blue Devils' last six games.

1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. 1 Wisconsin Badgers

Spread: Kentucky -5
Total: 131
Line movement:

Team	Opening Line	Current Line	Action
Wisconsin	+6.5	+5	56%
Kentucky	-6.5	-5	44%

Team	Opening Total	Current Total	Action
Wisconsin	130 ov	131 ov	61%
Kentucky	130 un	131 un	39%

Analysis: Notre Dame showed no fear and went right at Kentucky, giving the Wildcats their toughest test of the year.
Wisconsin is a better team than the Irish and won't be intimidated by a rematch against Kentucky. The Badgers will be leaning on more upperclassmen than the Wildcats on Saturday, and at this stage of the tournament, that's going to make a big difference.
Last year's meeting was decided by just a single point, and while John Calipari brings a litany of reinforcements this time around, Wisconsin has the height to limit the interior presence of Karl-Anthony Towns – something Notre Dame lacked.
Notre Dame ranks as one of the most efficient offenses in basketball, but no offense has scored with the efficiency that Wisconsin has. If the Badgers follow the blueprint that the Irish laid out, they could find themselves earning a shot at the national title Monday night.
This is a tight matchup that doesn't warrant a five-point line. Consider it an opportunity to get in on the underdog as the public continues to bump up the lines on Kentucky games, despite the Wildcats having covered in only one of four tournament games.
Prediction: Wisconsin 72, Kentucky 70
The Play: Wisconsin +5
The Trend: The Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA tournament games.
Odds courtesy Scoresandodds.com. Statistics courtesy Pregame.com. Trends courtesy Covers.